Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon


Autoria(s): Moualeu-Ngangue, Dany Pascal; Roeblitz, Susanna; Ehrig, Rainald; Deuflhard, Peter
Data(s)

13/04/2015

Resumo

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

Identificador

http://dx.doi.org/10.15488/275

http://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/handle/123456789/297

Idioma(s)

eng

Publicador

San Francisco : Public Library Science

Relação

http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0120607

ESSN:1932-6203

Direitos

CC BY 4.0

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

frei zugänglich

Fonte

PloS ONE 10 (2015), Nr. 4

Palavras-Chave #disease transmission #hiv #reinfection #epidemics #therapy #numbers #impact #tb #ddc:610
Tipo

status-type:publishedVersion

doc-type:article

doc-type:Text