System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression


Autoria(s): Navarro González, José Manuel; Parada Gélvez, Hugo Alexer; Dueñas López, Juan Carlos
Data(s)

2014

Resumo

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

http://oa.upm.es/36455/

Idioma(s)

eng

Publicador

E.T.S.I. Telecomunicación (UPM)

Relação

http://oa.upm.es/36455/1/INVE_MEM_2014_190764.pdf

http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/AIMS.2014.19

Direitos

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Fonte

2nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation (AIMS 2014) | 2nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation (AIMS 2014) | 18/11/2014 - 20/11/2014 | Madrid, Spain

Palavras-Chave #Informática #Telecomunicaciones
Tipo

info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject

Ponencia en Congreso o Jornada

PeerReviewed