Predicting the Risk of Lung Cancer in Never-smokers

Despite being considered a disease of smokers, approximately 10-15% of lung cancer cases occur in never-smokers. Lung cancer risk prediction models have demonstrated excellent ability to discriminate cases from non-cases, and have been shown to be more efficient at selecting individuals for future screening than current criteria. Existing models have primarily been developed in populations of smokers, thus there was a need to develop an accurate model in never-smokers. This study focused on developing and validating a model using never-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cox regression analysis, with six-year follow-up, was used for model building. Predictors included: age, body mass index, education level, personal history of cancer, family history of lung cancer, previous chest X-ray, and secondhand smoke exposure. This model achieved fair discrimination (optimism corrected c-statistic = 0.6645) and good calibration. This represents an improvement on existing neversmoker models, but is not suitable for individual-level risk prediction.