三种权重赋值方法下项目的权重决策

It is a weighting process to justify the importance of different items. This paper is about how the estimator distributes profiling the weights to different items. This paper is about using design of psychological experiment to figure out the profiles of the weights of different ranked items in three weighting methods, and in the experiment we use five topics as experimental materials. At the same time, we controlled the factors such as the familiarity about the topic and the number of items. Then we use the curve estimation to figure out the exact profiles and use ANOVA to test the topic effects. Curve estimation result shows that there is difference between the profiles of the weights of different ranking items in three weighting methods. To PA, the weighting profile is logarithmic curving style, and to DR, the weighting profile is linear style. ANOVA result shows that there are topic effects to different weighting profiles. But to go ahead, when we use point allocation (PA) to the more important items, the topics seems to have little effects. The methods have relatively more effect than the topics. The result also indicates that to PA methods, there is no significant difference the weight profiles between the fix-sum and the open-sum. This result has a contribution to the basic research to the management science and social science.

对项目的重要性进行判断，是一个心理权重赋值的过程。本文的研究是希望能够了解人们在给若干项目分配权重时候的基本规律。 本文用实验方法来研究在三种权重赋值方法下，不同重要性项目的权重分配变化的趋势。在研究中采用了五个话题来探讨这种规律是否受话题变化的影响。同时在实验中控制了问题的熟悉程度和选择项目的数目等等影响因素，最后用曲线拟和来描述这种规律，并用方差分析来检验话题效应。 曲线拟和的结果发表明：三种方法下不同重要性的项目的权重分配的变化趋势是不一样的，用PA方法所得到的权重的变化趋势是一种先陡后缓的变化，其曲线拟和结果符合对数形式；在DR方法下，所得到的权重的变化趋势是一种直线，其曲线拟和结果更加符合直线形式。 方差分析结果表明：话题间的这种权重变化趋势是有差异的，不过进一步发现，重要的项目在分配点数（PA）方法下话题效应不显著。针对于所有方法，方法效应均大于话题效应。针对PA法，人为设定开放总数和固定总数的权重曲线曲度系数没有显著性差异。 本文的研究结论对管理科学和社会科学项目权重赋值方式提供了研究基础。