Simulation and modelling of orbital debris environment by equivalent breakups

It is well known that the increasing space activities pose a serious threat to future missions. This is mainly due to the presence of spent stages, rockets spacecraft and fragments which can lead to collisions. The calculation of the collision probability of future space vehicles with the orbital debris is necessary for estimating the risk. There is lack of adequately catalogued and openly available detailed information on the explosion characteristics of trackable and untrackable debris data. Such a situation compels one to develop suitable mathematical modelling of the explosion and the resultant debris environment. Based on a study of the available information regarding the fragmentation, subsequent evolution and observation, it turns out to be possible to develop such a mathematical model connecting the dynamical features of the fragmentation with the geometrical/orbital characteristics of the debris and representing the environment through the idea of equivalent breakup. (C) 1997 COSPAR.