Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.